In the US, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman last week, a move viewed positively by the market. The dollar rebounded this week, while precious metals declined. Although Warsh has occasionally supported Trump's calls for US interest rate cuts, we believe his nomination should help alleviate market concerns about the Fed's independence.

In the Eurozone, January inflation fell as expected to 1.7% year-on-year from 2.0%, while core inflation was 2.2% year-on-year (expected 2.3%), slightly weaker than anticipated. Despite inflation being below target, the ECB, as widely expected, decided to keep its key policy rate (deposit facility rate at 2.00%) unchanged. President Lagarde emphasized positive economic factors, such as low unemployment, while downplaying the impact of below-target inflation and a stronger euro.

In the UK, the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75% by a surprisingly close 5-4 vote, a dovish surprise. Its report concluded that the UK economic outlook showed both growth and inflation were lower than previously expected. This also means we continue to expect the next rate cut in April, and simultaneously anticipate another rate cut in November.

In China, January PMI data showed mixed results. However, these PMI figures did not change our view on the Chinese economic outlook: the economy continues to struggle under a "two-speed" growth model, with strong exports and technological development, but weak domestic demand.

Last Week's Market Performance Review:

Last week, US stocks rose sharply. The technology sector rebounded after several days of heavy selling, while Bitcoin also rebounded after falling more than 50% in a sharp decline, driving a recovery in market risk appetite. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,206.95 points, or 2.47%, to close at 50,115.67. Friday also marked the first time the Dow broke through and closed above the 50,000-point mark. The S&P 500 rose 1.97% to close at 6,932.30; the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.18% to close at 23,031.21. With Friday's gains, the S&P 500 has returned to positive territory for the start of 2026.

Gold rose more than 3.5% on Friday, breaking through $4,950 an ounce, and is poised for a weekly gain after a week of wild swings. Signs of a slowing U.S. economy and persistent geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with the consequences of forced selling, fueled market volatility. This rally followed a wave of liquidations triggered by higher margin requirements and a sharp sell-off in silver at the end of January. While U.S.-Iran talks in Oman were described as a good start, mitigating the risk of immediate escalation, they did not eliminate broader uncertainty, maintaining gold's defensive appeal. A weaker dollar and position rebuilding further amplified the rally.

Last week, silver prices continued their rebound on Friday, approaching $78 an ounce, halting the sell-off since the end of January. The market assessed the contrast between the metal's solid fundamentals and excessive speculative positions that had caused unprecedented volatility in the asset. Despite the rebound, silver prices erased all year-to-date gains shortly after reaching a record high of $121 on January 29, with the sell-off triggering higher margin requirements and exacerbating liquidations.

Last week, the dollar traded within a narrow range as markets priced in President Donald Trump's nomination of former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, and the partial government shutdown that delayed jobs and inflation data until next week. The shutdown was finally resolved on Wednesday with President Trump signing a funding bill. The dollar index traded near the 97.60 level after hitting a two-week high earlier on Friday. The dollar index dipped slightly below 98 on Friday but remained close to the two-week high reached earlier this week and is on track for a nearly 0.9% gain by the end of the first week of February.

The euro/dollar traded near the 1.1820 level, up more than 0.30% on the day, after the European Central Bank announced its monetary policy decision earlier this week. The Sentix investor confidence index will be released on Monday, and eurozone employment changes will be released on Friday. The dollar/yen traded near the 157.10 level, climbing to near a two-week high. The yen earlier strengthened against the dollar as some profit-taking occurred ahead of Japan's snap election on Sunday, which will also see the release of December labor cash earnings and non-seasonally adjusted current account figures.

The pound/dollar traded near the 1.3610 price area, having pared some of its weekly losses after the Bank of England's dovish rate decision remained flat. The pound's rebound was driven by a pullback in the dollar from a two-week high, influenced by some profit-taking and speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut. Hawkish comments from Bank of England Governor Pierre also contributed to the pound's improvement. The Australian dollar rose against the dollar, climbing back above 0.70, recovering earlier losses on Friday. The pair faced challenges amid a broad sell-off in global equities and other risk-sensitive assets. The commodity-linked Australian dollar, often seen as a flow indicator of global risk sentiment, was pressured by a sell-off in tech stocks triggered by concerns about heavy AI-related spending, which shook investor confidence.

Cryptocurrency market "huge shake"! Bitcoin plunged to around $60,000 after experiencing significant volatility during Friday's trading session; the earlier sell-off had pushed the token down to levels more than 50% below its October high. Bitcoin initially fell as much as 4.8% on Friday morning, hitting a new low of $60,033, before rebounding to a high of $65,926. Other cryptocurrencies also initially fell sharply before quickly recovering. Solana initially plunged more than 14% but fully recovered its losses within hours.

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 4 basis points on Friday to 4.22%, partially erasing a 10-basis-point drop from the previous session, as market risk appetite improved. The market now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by about 58 basis points this year, up from about 50 basis points earlier this week.

Market Outlook This Week:

This week (February 9-13), global markets will face a crucial window of opportunity with the Japanese general election and a flurry of key economic data releases. The US non-farm payroll data release has been delayed, while core economic indicators from both China and the US will be released in quick succession. SMIC's fourth-quarter results will also be officially unveiled. From the political maneuvering surrounding the Japanese election to the Fed's policy-anchored non-farm payroll and CPI data, from China's social financing and credit data and inflation data to economic indicators from Europe and the US, a complex interplay of events and data could trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to plan ahead to mitigate potential risks and opportunities.

The key focus of Japan's snap election is whether the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can secure 310 seats in the House of Representatives (2/3), as initiating constitutional amendments requires a 2/3 majority in both houses. Furthermore, a 310-seat House of Representatives would activate the "House of Representatives supremacy," allowing the House to pass a bill with a 2/3 majority even if the Senate rejects it, which is crucial for policy implementation.

Wednesday is the highlight of the week. The US Labor Department's non-farm payroll data, originally scheduled for February 6th, will be released today after being postponed. Given the weaker-than-expected ADP non-farm payroll data, the total number of new jobs added this week may also fall short of expectations. However, due to the overall low level of non-farm payrolls, its impact will be limited. The unemployment rate will remain the more significant factor affecting the market; 4.4% is the red line for the US unemployment rate, and exceeding it will have a significant negative impact on the US dollar index.

Two FOMC voting members will deliver speeches that evening. In addition to the non-farm payroll data, China's CPI and PPI data, as well as crude oil inventory data released by API and EIA, will also be released today. Meanwhile, SMIC is scheduled to hold its Q4 2025 earnings conference.

Regarding risks this week:

Risk Warning: Election variables and policy expectations require close attention.

Besides core economic data, investors should be wary of three potential risks:

First, the political uncertainties arising from the Japanese election results. If the changes in the Liberal Democratic Party's seats exceed market expectations, it will directly trigger sharp short-term fluctuations in the yen and Japanese assets.

Second, after the release of the Fed's non-farm payroll and CPI data, significant revisions to policy expectations will lead to a coordinated adjustment in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and global risk assets.

Third, pre-Chinese New Year liquidity fluctuations coupled with the release of Chinese companies' earnings reports may trigger sentiment-driven volatility in related sectors of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, requiring vigilance against the risk of short-term market liquidity tightening.

This Week's Conclusion:

This week's focus will shift to the US employment market report, the fourth-quarter employment cost index, retail sales, and January CPI data. We expect 60,000 new jobs in January and a year-on-year CPI of 2.4%. In Asia, the Japanese election this Sunday is crucial for financial markets, while China will release housing price data and CPI this week. In Europe, we will see the Eurozone's first employment data for the fourth quarter of 2025 and UK GDP data.

US Partisan Divide Escalates; Stalemate Could Prolong Government Shutdown

The political deadlock surrounding the $1.2 trillion spending bill has pushed the partial US government shutdown crisis to a new critical point. This congressional storm, ignited by immigration disputes, not only highlights the sharp divisions within the Democratic Party but also exposes the governance dilemma of US political polarization.

This political storm, triggered by immigration disputes and fiscal appropriations, is essentially a classic example of how US political polarization damages its financial credibility. It directly creates an environment conducive to gold price increases while posing multiple challenges to the US dollar, from short-term trading to long-term credibility. Investors should closely watch whether the non-farm payroll data will be released as scheduled this Friday, which will be a litmus test for market sentiment.

Government Shutdown Crisis Resurfaces; Democratic Camp Split

House Appropriations Committee Democrat Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut stated that she will vote in favor of the bill when it is submitted for a vote on Tuesday. DeLauro stated that without temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security, Democrats will "not be able to exert the necessary pressure" to push for amendments to the full-year Department of Homeland Security appropriations bill currently being negotiated with the White House.

But Representative Jim McGovern, the ranking Democrat on the Rules Committee, said he strongly opposes the bill because it includes funding for the Department of Homeland Security.

However, neither leader (the House Democratic and Republican leaders) is expected to vote on a key procedural motion aimed at scheduling a final debate and vote on the massive bill that passed the Senate last Friday.

Additional Issues: Political Ties Between the Clinton Investigation and the Election Bill

The motion, called the "Rules," is also expected to trigger a vote on contempt of Congress charges against Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton for their alleged lack of cooperation in the oversight committee's investigation into Jeffrey Epstein. Republican leadership is vying for support as some Republicans push for amendments, including a partisan option bill.

House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries said Monday, "Republicans have a responsibility to push this Rules motion, which, incidentally, includes many other issues we strongly oppose."

Analysis of the Impact of a Continued Government Shutdown

If the government shutdown continues in the coming weeks, it could trigger a series of cascading effects. Market economic data reports may not be released on schedule, impacting financial market decision-making. Meanwhile, the tax season, which began last week, may also be disrupted or delayed, directly impacting taxpayers and tax service agencies.

As the shutdown extends, the impact will spread further: government contractors will face pay cuts and service delivery delays, while many non-essential government employees may be forced into unpaid leave, creating broader ripple effects on overall economic activity and social functioning.

Uncertainty is a friend of gold, an enemy of the dollar.

The current situation is essentially a "political dysfunction": severe partisan and intra-party conflicts over issues such as immigration and funding are jeopardizing basic government operations and the release of key economic data. This domestic political failure in the US will directly weaken the long-term appeal of the dollar while increasing the safe-haven value of gold.

The government shutdown itself is a signal of a political crisis. Markets abhor uncertainty, and funds will naturally flow to traditional safe-haven assets such as gold.

Global investors hold dollars based on their trust in the stability and effectiveness of the US political system. The current open and intense political divisions and legislative paralysis will erode this foundation of trust, potentially prompting central banks and sovereign wealth funds to reassess the proportion of US dollars in their foreign exchange reserves, constituting a long-term structural negative.

Conclusion: The current technical shutdown of the US government was triggered by a misalignment between the House of Representatives' schedule and the budget deadline. If the partisan differences on Department of Homeland Security funding and immigration enforcement persist, the shutdown is likely to be prolonged. The short-term economic impact is limited, but the long-term risks cannot be ignored.

The direct impact of this technical shutdown is limited. Political impact: It further highlights the dysfunction of US political governance, and the partisan struggle damages the government's credibility, adding uncertainty to subsequent elections. Market impact: Short-term volatility is limited. If the shutdown exceeds expectations, it may trigger fluctuations in US stocks and the US dollar, with safe-haven assets gaining favor.

Australian Dollar Surges; Is One Rate Hike Enough?

Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia made a key interest rate decision: raising rates by 25 basis points to 3.85% as expected. However, what truly shook the market was its subsequent "forward guidance." Official signals were stronger than expected, suggesting two more rate hikes this year, while the market had generally only priced in one. This "expectation gap" quickly ignited the sensitive nerves of the foreign exchange market.

In exchange rate pricing, current interest rates are important, but the expectation of future interest rate paths is even more crucial. When the market realizes that holding Australian dollar assets will yield higher interest returns in the future, carry trade funds will flood in, driving the Australian dollar higher across the board. Furthermore, interest rate differential expectations also affect hedging costs and asset allocation decisions, further amplifying exchange rate volatility. Therefore, even if the rate hike itself is in line with expectations, a tightening of tone is enough to trigger a trend-driven market movement.

The US dollar isn't that weak; data is quietly reversing.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is not without resistance. The recent slight rebound in the dollar is not simply due to rumors that Kevin Warsh might succeed him as Fed Chair, but more so because the market itself is adjusting positions and rebalancing expectations. The previous continuous decline in the dollar lacked sufficiently solid unilateral fundamental support, so this technical rebound is normal. Currently, the US dollar is neither poised for a sustained surge nor does it have the basis for a significant drop, remaining in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

However, a series of recent US economic data releases have revealed positive signals. More importantly, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index significantly exceeded expectations, with the new orders sub-index jumping to its highest point since 2022. This could potentially delay the Fed's rate cut pace. While these data haven't completely reversed policy expectations, they have begun to reshape market pricing in the extent of easing this year.

The market still expects the Fed to cut rates by about 48 basis points before the end of the year, but if subsequent data continues to be strong, this expectation is likely to be compressed. Once the room for rate cuts narrows, the US dollar will receive substantial support, which in turn will limit the upside potential of the Australian dollar.

Officials Hint at No Rate Cut in the Near Term

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor signaled a cautiously hawkish policy stance: while acknowledging a positive economic fundamentals, he prioritized combating inflation and explicitly refused to follow market expectations in making rapid assessments of financial conditions, acknowledging that the monetary channel was already functioning. Governor Bullock stated, "The Australian dollar's performance indicates a tightening of financial conditions," indicating that factors such as the appreciation of the Australian dollar have automatically tightened financial conditions. This may cause the RBA to consider the magnitude of interest rate hikes, meaning that it does not need to rely solely on interest rates to achieve a tightening effect.

A tug-of-war between bulls and bears has begun, with key levels becoming the focus of the game.

The question now is: can the Australian dollar withstand the pressure and continue to rise? The answer depends on the interplay of forces on both sides: on one hand, the support from the RBA's tight policy outlook; on the other hand, the pressure from resilient US economic data and a potential rebound in the US dollar. Since exchange rates are essentially relative prices, for the Australian dollar to rise, it not only needs to be strong itself but also needs the opposing side to avoid sudden upward pressure.

Conclusion:

Despite a 25 basis point rate hike, whether it can further strengthen the Australian dollar depends on whether the RBA releases clearer signals of subsequent tightening. Current market pricing indicates approximately 55 basis points of room for interest rate hikes by the end of this year, implying at least one more rate hike beyond this one. If the post-meeting statement merely reiterates "data dependence," emphasizes lagging effects and downside risks to the economy, this cautious tone could be interpreted as the policy nearing its end, leading to a downward revision of market expectations for final interest rates and consequently triggering profit-taking in the Australian dollar.

The real variable lies in the rhetoric: hawkish or dovish, determining the fate of the Australian dollar.

Was the $1200 plunge a bull market "false break"? Gold price outlook

Spot gold prices plummeted from near the historic high of $5600 last week to a low of $4402, a drop of nearly $1200 in a short period that stunned global investors. At the heart of this storm was a margin call notice from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and a sharp reassessment of the future Federal Reserve chairman. However, beneath the seemingly panic selling, the market generally believes this may not be the death knell for the bull market, but rather a "violent shakeout" to pave the way for a healthier subsequent rise.

I. The Eye of the Storm: Multiple Factors Converging to Trigger a Technical Surge

This gold price plunge was not caused by a single negative factor, but rather a perfect storm formed by the convergence of multiple factors in a short period.

First, a subtle shift in policy expectations was the trigger. US President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve Governor Warsh to succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. This sparked market concerns about a potential tightening of liquidity. Increased uncertainty about the Fed's future policy path directly weakened gold's appeal as a hedge against loose monetary policy.

Second, the final push by exchanges exacerbated the sell-off. Following sharp price fluctuations, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange announced an increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures trading. This risk control measure, implemented at a time when market sentiment was already fragile, significantly increased the holding costs for short-term traders, forcing a large number of speculative long positions to be liquidated, creating a vicious cycle of "decline-liquidation-further decline," amplifying the price drop.

Finally, the US dollar and market sentiment further amplified the situation. The US dollar index climbed to a more than one-week high during this period, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, suppressing demand. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in the precious metals market triggered broader risk aversion, with some funds flowing out of gold ETFs and turning to holding cash, further exacerbating selling pressure.

II. Data Perspective: The Hidden "Bull Shadow" Amid the Plunge

Despite the dramatic price movements, a closer look at the data and fundamentals reveals a completely different story.

From the price performance itself, while the plunge was severe, it exhibited clear technical characteristics and a short-term nature. After Monday's plunge, spot gold rebounded rapidly by more than 5% on Tuesday (February 3), briefly returning above $4,900, demonstrating strong buying support on dips. This pattern of sharp rises and falls often signifies a fundamental shift in the driving force, moving away from long-term investment logic and towards short-term capital.

More importantly, institutional opinions have not turned pessimistic. They explicitly state that "the current environment has not yet created conditions for a sustained reversal in gold prices," and point out that investors "remain highly optimistic about upside potential." They consider reaching $6,000 per ounce a "conservative estimate." The core of these views lies in the fact that the fundamentals driving this gold bull market—global geopolitical uncertainty, long-term concerns about the credibility of fiat currencies, continued central bank gold purchases, and potential global macroeconomic risks—have not fundamentally reversed.

III. The Future Battlefield: The Game of Three Core Variables

The future direction of gold will depend on the outcome of the interplay of the following key variables.

The primary variable is the actual policy stance of the "Wash Fed." The market is currently eagerly assessing the true policy position of nominee Warsh. Particular attention needs to be paid to how he balances his rhetoric on "interest rate cuts" with his advocacy for "balance sheet reduction." Any signal of a substantial tightening of financial conditions could suppress gold prices in the short term; conversely, a policy focus leaning towards supporting economic growth and tolerating higher inflation would be a long-term positive for gold.

The second variable is the resilience of macroeconomic data. Recent data shows a rebound in US manufacturing, but the pervasive pessimism regarding trade policy uncertainty in surveys, along with the emergence of anti-American buyer sentiment, suggests that the recovery is not on a solid foundation. Meanwhile, the partial US government shutdown may delay the release of key employment data, exacerbating information asymmetry in the market. Whether gold can regain favor depends on whether the economy achieves a "soft landing" or experiences further turbulence; the latter will quickly ignite gold's safe-haven appeal.

The third variable is market confidence and capital flows. This sharp drop is a stress test of market confidence. Currently, buying on dips remains active. Going forward, close attention needs to be paid to whether global gold ETF holdings stabilize and whether central bank gold purchases continue. If long-term allocation demand from institutional and individual investors remains strong, then the current volatility is merely a ripple in a long river.

Conclusion:

In summary, the recent plunge in the gold market is more like a "technical adjustment" and "speculative cleansing" triggered by short-term policy uncertainties, upgraded exchange risk controls, and a stronger dollar, rather than a disproving of the long-term bull market logic. The market's dramatic fluctuations themselves reflect investor anxiety and position adjustments ahead of anticipated major policy turning points. After the plunge, gold's underlying support—the demand for hedging against monetary credit, geopolitical risks, and economic uncertainties—remains strong.

For investors, the current market may be in a complex but opportunity-filled window. Until the "Washington New Deal" becomes clearer and the macroeconomic landscape becomes more defined, market volatility may remain high. This requires investors not only to pay attention to the Fed's statements and economic data, but also to see through the short-term price noise and adhere to their understanding of gold's essential attributes.

Geopolitical Situation Dominates Short-Term Market Trends: Oil Price Decline?

As OPEC's fourth-largest oil producer, the changing relationship between Iran and the United States has always been a core variable in the oil market. Latest reports indicate that U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkov will meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Turkey to attempt to restart diplomatic negotiations on the nuclear issue in order to alleviate regional war concerns.

The dramatic fluctuations in oil prices over the past four weeks stem from the geopolitical risks arising from the expansionist foreign policy of the U.S. government, particularly the 'erratic' military threats against Iran. "With the resumption of diplomatic negotiations, market panic over regional conflicts has significantly subsided, directly driving a pullback in oil prices.

However, the market is still closely watching the progress of subsequent negotiations. If the talks break down, geopolitical risks may escalate again, potentially leading to a rapid rebound in oil prices. It is worth noting that even if negotiations proceed smoothly, the pace of Iranian crude oil's return to the global market remains uncertain. Lifting sanctions and resuming crude oil exports from Iran could take 3-6 months, meaning that the actual increase in supply in the short term is limited, potentially restricting the downside potential of oil prices.

The Dual Impact of a Stronger Dollar and Trade Policy: Both Suppression and Support

Besides geopolitical factors, the recent strength of the US dollar has also put downward pressure on dollar-denominated crude oil. Driven by the hawkish leanings of Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh and better-than-expected US ISM manufacturing data, the dollar index has rebounded from a recent four-year low to around 97.60, further increasing downward pressure on crude oil.

Historical data shows that the negative correlation between the US dollar index and crude oil prices reached 0.78 in the past month. This means that for every 1% increase in the dollar, crude oil prices fall by an average of 0.78%. The current dollar rebound is continuously weakening the attractiveness of crude oil.

Meanwhile, adjustments to trade policies between the US and India have provided potential support for oil prices. Reports indicate that US President Trump announced a reduction in tariffs on Indian crude from 25% to 18% in exchange for India ceasing its purchases of Russian crude oil. This, in turn, supports oil prices.

This agreement may prompt India to increase its imports of US crude oil, indirectly boosting demand expectations for WTI crude oil.

Furthermore, OPEC+'s production cut policy remains a significant support for oil prices. Recent news indicates that OPEC+ members have recently begun to exceed their production cut agreement, with a total reduction of 1.8 million barrels per day in January, exceeding the original target by 300,000 barrels per day. This supply contraction is providing a floor for oil prices.

Macroeconomic and Financial Market Linkage: The Deep Logic Underlying Multi-Dimensional Disturbances

Besides the direct drivers of geopolitics and trade, the current crude oil market is also under pressure from the deep linkage between the macroeconomy and financial markets. Market expectations for global economic growth in 2026 have been lowered from 3.2% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%. This change in expectations has directly dragged down expectations for crude oil demand growth, and the slowdown in demand growth is weakening the upward momentum of oil prices. At the same time, the relative strength of the US economy has exacerbated this divergence, exceeding market expectations. While supporting the US dollar, this has further weakened the safe-haven attribute of crude oil as a commodity.

According to official data from the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), hedge funds and other non-commercial institutions increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures by 9,586 contracts to 28,937 contracts, ending the previous two weeks of slight fluctuations. This reflects speculative funds covering their long positions during a period of fluctuating US-Iran geopolitical risks, indicating intensified competition among speculative funds amid geopolitical disturbances. From a micro-market perspective, according to ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) position data released on January 31, as of the week ending January 27, fund management institutions increased their net long positions in Brent crude oil by 19,409 contracts to 377,371 contracts, a nearly 10-month high since early April last year, resonating with the covering of long positions in the WTI market. However, some quantitative funds, based on their assessment of a stronger dollar and weaker demand expectations, are still adjusting their crude oil exposure in their portfolios. Coupled with the sharp drop in oil prices triggered by signals of US-Iran dialogue on February 2, market divergence regarding whether oil prices can hold the $62 support level has significantly increased, further exacerbating short-term volatility in the long-short battle.

Conclusion:

In summary, the crude oil market is at a critical juncture where bullish and bearish forces are intertwined. Going forward, four key variables need to be monitored: the progress of US-Iran negotiations will directly impact the rise and fall of geopolitical risk premiums; the US dollar index is closely related to expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy; the OPEC+'s ability to implement production cuts is the core support on the supply side; and the pace of global economic recovery will be a crucial indicator on the demand side.

Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:

Monday (February 9): Eurozone February Sentix Investor Confidence Index; US December Wholesale Inventories (Final)

Tuesday (February 10): Australia's ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (Week Ending February 8); US December Import Price Index (Week Ending February); US December Import Price Index (Year-on-Year)

Wednesday (February 11): US January CPI (Unadjusted) (Year-on-Year); US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (Week Ending February 6); Japan's National Foundation Day Market closed for one day.

Thursday (February 12): UK December GDP MoM (%); UK December Industrial Production MoM (%); UK Q4 Production-based GDP YoY (preliminary) (%); US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7 (thousands); US January Existing Home Sales (annualized) (thousands)

Friday (February 13): Eurozone December Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance (billions of euros); Eurozone Q4 Seasonally Adjusted GDP QoQ (revised) (%); UK February CBI Industrial Orders Balance

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